Erdogan’s defeat in Istanbul is a boon for Turkey’s Democracy
Erdogan has been dealt a heavy blow. Losing Istanbul, a city where he begun his journey towards leading the country, is no longer run by the party that he founded, and now rules the country. The loss of the mayoralty of Major cities to the CHP, the main opposition, creates a credible platform for CHP to test potential presidential candidates, it deprives jobs for AKP activists, and adds to the woes of haggard AKP business allies already maimed by the fall of the Lira, now having to deal with additional loss of lucrative municipal contracts.
Bearing all this in mind its worth stating that underlying electoral arithmetic may not have changed much. If the poll figures are to be believed, AKP still has over 40% of the vote, the nationalist vote has been split in two, and the next presidential election is a good 4 years away in 2023. Even so we need to remember this wasn’t supposed to happen. Since the 2016 coup attempt all competitors within the state have been more or less marginalised, the media sings from a single hymn sheet, opponents in the judiciary and the many within academia has been purged or mollified, and yet despite this. these electoral losses are broaching the possibility of a different party ruling Turkey. Yet while much commentary will focus on the CHP, it may be worth pondering how these losses may affect the AK Party.
For the AK Party leadership, the elections brings the possibility of being out power for the first time in a generation. It dulls the enthusiasm for all those centralising reforms that were deliberately invoked to change the state, in alignment with the populace as well as guide the populace back to its heritage. The prospect of being out of power may concentrate minds in the AK party, that efforts must be made guard against the excesses of an authoritarian state, if only because the prospect of being on the wrong side of their ‘centralising reforms’ has become a distinct possibility . Let’s hope that this defeat will be used for greater openness and reconciliation in Turkey, not further centralisation of power, to offset electoral gains by AKP opponents*.
Yet there may be wider lessons for the region. People power has once again had a role in reforming the state; After the protests in Sudan, the unprecedented protests in Algeria and now the democratic electoral losses for the AK Party, it seems the people are determined to make their voices heard. Wiser heads in the circles of power in Egypt and Sudan should ponder the limits of strong-man rule.
*Since piece has been written the AK party has contested the result of the mayoral election and lost its objection in open court, now it seeks to nullify the Istanbul municipal elections. But disquiet has been expressed by former AK party PM Davutoglu, critiquing the AK parties current predicament.Democracy has a way of checking strongmen. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics/former-turkish-pm-davutoglu-sharply-criticizes-erdogans-ak-party-idUSKCN1RY0M8